Somalia

Medium intensity · Insurgency · Al-Shabaab vs Somali & partners · Reviewed 23 Aug 2026

Conflict map

Approximate theatre focus. Not a control-line map.

Current status

Medium-intensity conflict: Al-Shabaab remains capable of complex attacks and rural control in parts of south-central Somalia. Federal forces, clan militias and international partners conduct offensives with uneven hold.

Key parties

Al-Shabaab
Somali National Army and federal member-state forces
ATMIS/AU successors and partner support; ISIS cells in the north (limited)

Selected timeline

2006–11
Al-Shabaab rise and pushback from Mogadishu

2010s
Protracted insurgency

2022–23
Major government offensives

2024–25
Mixed gains; suicide and complex attacks continue

2026
Medium intensity; Al-Shabaab still potent

IntensityDesk assessment: Medium — enduring insurgency

Urban riskMogadishu and other cities remain targets for high-profile attacks

Desk noteClaimed death tolls after complex attacks are often revised — wait for named sources

Developing

Attack or offensive claims

Federal, local and militant channels frequently claim operations. Corroborate location and outcome before upgrading.

OSINT / local

Confirmed

Al-Shabaab threat ongoing

Somali authorities and international partners confirm that Al-Shabaab retains capacity for raids and mass-casualty attacks despite offensives.

Official